The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its monthly forecast, stating that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July. The monthly average rainfall is expected to be 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), according to the weather department.
What the IMD Forecast Says About July Rainfall
The IMD said the LPA rainfall over the country for July, based on the 1971–2020 period, is about 280.4 mm. LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a particular region during a specified period, such as a month or a season, over a long-term reference period, typically spanning 30 to 50 years. Rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA is generally considered normal.
According to the IMD, some parts of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. This means that while the overall national average will be below normal, certain areas may still get adequate or even surplus rain.
What This Means for Different Regions
The forecast suggests that the below-normal rainfall will not be uniform across the country. While the national average is pegged at 94% of LPA, specific regions such as parts of northwest India, northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region are expected to see normal to above-normal precipitation. This regional variation is important for farmers and water managers to note.
Our Take: A Forecast That Demands Attention
In our view, the IMD's July forecast is a clear signal that the monsoon season is not going to be uniform this year. While the overall number — 94% of LPA — may not seem alarming, it falls below the normal range. This could impact agriculture, water reserves, and daily life in areas that receive less rain. The silver lining is that some regions are still expected to get normal rainfall, which may balance out some of the effects. However, authorities and citizens in areas likely to see deficits should start preparing now. This forecast is not a reason for panic, but it is a reason for caution and planning.
